Welcome to one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. With monetary policy decisions coming from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, we’re entering a high-volatility window that could reshape trends across major markets. In this week's forecast, Nikkhil breaks down how these events are aligning with key price structures, especially in gold, the dollar, and oil, so you can trade with clarity and confidence.
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yields):
Yields have been drifting lower, and Nikkhil sees technical confirmation of weakness. After a lower high formed with bearish divergence, the break of trendline support is now aiming for the 3.36% zone. This structure suggests continued downside in long-term rates - a bearish cue for the dollar, and a bullish backdrop for gold. If yields breach 3.36 cleanly, we could see accelerated weakness in DXY.
Dollar Index (DXY):
DXY remains heavy after rejecting from the 100.37 resistance zone. With weekly fib support at 94.40 now in play, Nikkhil expects bearish continuation unless we see a clear structure break. On the daily, the 94.20 - 94.40 magnet is critical. As long as price holds below this area, the path of least resistance remains lower.
USDCAD:
Despite support along a rising trendline, USDCAD is flashing mixed signals. A short-term bounce was triggered by bullish divergence, but the recent highs are printing bearish divergence again. Nikkhil sees 1.3911 as a key magnet zone. A bounce into this area with fresh divergence could offer a high-probability short - especially with both the Fed and BOC deciding rates midweek.
WTI Crude Oil:
Oil remains in a broader downtrend, capped under the 66.91 resistance cluster. Weekly extensions point to 57.55 and potentially 55 as next supports. While a short-term bounce was triggered by divergence, the structure remains bearish with consistent lower highs. Nikkhil notes that a break below 61.74 could accelerate the decline, confirming the next wave down.
Gold (XAUUSD):
Gold surged to new highs near $3,675, right into a powerful fib resistance band (3,670 - 3,699). Despite the rally, there are no bearish divergences on higher timeframes - a bullish signal. Nikkhil is watching 3,583 as a potential retest zone if any short-term pullback occurs. If support holds, gold could break into 3,720+, with longer-term targets reaching up to $4,000. As long as 10Y yields and the dollar remain weak, this bullish structure remains intact.
With four central banks lined up and price sitting at critical levels, this week is all about preparation and precision.
Nikkhil has laid out the major zones, divergence signals, and structure breaks to guide your trading plan.
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Team Moneytize