Welcome to this week’s forex forecast. We’re entering a pivotal moment as we transition into September. The non‑farm payroll announcement looms large. Will it halt DXY’s retreat or give gold the momentum to forge a new high? In this edition, Nikkhil zeroes in on US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, Solana, and Gold. Expect clear levels, actionable setups, and market psychology decoded, all tailored to help you act with precision, not emotion.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
Recent analysis on the 3‑monthly chart revealed a bearish divergence, higher highs on the price chart met by weakening MACD momentum, signaling exhaustion among buyers. The index now sits on a rising trendline and Fib extension as converging support zones. Yet the MACD histogram remains negative across monthly and daily charts, reinforcing bearish pressure. On the 4‑hour chart, a minor upward retrace exists, but overall weakness prevails. Nikkhil’s takeaway: the broader downtrend remains intact, and intraday pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to sell. If DXY breaks below 96.55, expect accelerated weakness toward 94.55.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD is moving by the inverse of DXY, and indeed shows compelling bullish divergence on the 3‑monthly chart. A break above the falling trend line marks the start of a bullish structure shift. Fib extensions on monthly frames project upside targets, while short corrections on the weekly chart remain shallow unless the 14.6 retracement clears. On the daily and 4‑hour charts, defined magnet zones sit between 1.1071 - 1.1170, with resistance ranging from 1.1697 up to 1.2354. Nikkhil’s play: buy dips, with immediate targets in the 1.1847 - 1.1864 area, and then up toward 1.2128 and beyond as trend gains conviction.
GBP/JPY:
After years of downward pressure, GBP/JPY is forming bullish divergence on the 3‑monthly chart and breaking out of a downtrend. Fib retracement and extension levels suggest the pair will strive for 220.35 - 229.13 in the medium term. Weekly frames show a temporary pullback, but the pattern still favors bullish continuation, with medium-term targets of 204, 211, and 220. On daily charts, only a closing price below 195.24 would invalidate the buy‑the‑dip thesis. Intra‑day, a bullish flag on the 4‑hour chart flags opportunity, though divergence is still building. Overall, Nikkhil sees buying opportunities ahead of higher targets.
Solana (SOL/USDT):
Crypto currently favors bears. On the weekly chart, a double‑top with bearish divergence near the structure level signals sellers are in charge, making corrective bounces suspect. Retracements stalled around 222, but momentum remains weakening. Daily and 4‑hour charts confirm bearish divergence, and break of the rising trendline could expose targets at 180 - 179, sliding eventually toward 157. Short‑term caution advised, solidity of bearish breakout will be key.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold is firing on all cylinders across multiple timeframes. The monthly, weekly, and daily charts all show higher highs and higher lows in strong alignment with bullish Fib extensions. Key support zones are holding firm near 3,100, with the nearest magnet resistance at 3,476. Breaks above that may propel gold up toward 3,526 and ultimately 3,677. Nikkhil believes weaker NFP figures could ignite gold’s next move higher, pullbacks are setups, not worries. Buy zones around 3,390 could catch a breakout run.
As we close the week, keep patience in your toolkit and precision in your entries. The levels are live. The moves are brewing. Remember that automatic tools, like Aurum Algo Trading can help you place buy orders in gold or take action on confirmed setups if you prefer a hands-off approach.
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