Welcome back to this week’s Moneytize Forex Forecast. Last week’s inflation data shifted the tone across the market fast. Producer prices came in far hotter than expected, CPI pushed back toward 3.8%, and for the first time in four years the Federal Reserve is operating under new leadership. With the FOMC meeting minutes ahead, this week has the potential to set the tone for the next major move in both the US dollar and precious metals. Nikkhil has mapped out the key reaction zones, momentum signals, and high-probability structures that matter most heading into the week ahead.
USD Index (DXY)
The first chart Nikkhil focused on this week is the US Dollar Index. After completing a bullish break-of-structure on the daily timeframe, DXY reacted strongly from the 125% support region with both a double bottom and bullish divergence confirming the reversal structure. On the higher timeframe, the major resistance sits between 100.04 and 100.21, and if price clears that region cleanly, the next major magnet zone projects toward 101.43.
But in the short term, momentum is beginning to cool. On the lower timeframes, bullish momentum is fading and bearish divergence has started forming, which is why Nikkhil expects a temporary corrective drop before continuation higher. The key support retracement zone sits around 98.64 to 98.75, with deeper support near 98.39 if the pullback extends further. The broader view, however, remains constructive for the dollar as long as those support regions hold.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is where the real opportunity may develop this week. According to Nikkhil, the bullish structure that supported gold’s previous rally has now broken down technically, and the recent weekly close below the 4,550 support region is one of the clearest signs of weakness he’s seen this quarter. On the monthly chart, the 23.6 retracement around 4,653 has become a major resistance zone, while the broader downside structure points toward deeper targets below current price.
The key detail is timing. Nikkhil is not interested in selling gold at current depressed levels. Instead, he’s anticipating a corrective bounce early in the week as the dollar temporarily retraces lower. If that bounce develops, the preferred sell zone sits between 4,580 and 4,640, with 4,590 acting as an especially important intraday reaction level derived from the 4-hour extension structure. Volume profile analysis also confirms this region as a high-probability resistance area.
From there, the downside roadmap becomes clearer. The first major target sits near 4,385, followed by 4,145 if bearish momentum accelerates. Longer term, the broader weekly magnet zone projects toward the 3,968 - 3,992 region, though Nikkhil made it clear that move would likely take more than a single week to unfold. The critical event risk remains the FOMC minutes release, if the tone turns unexpectedly dovish, the bearish gold thesis weakens significantly. This level could trigger the next major reaction in gold.
Preparation matters most in weeks like this. The market is approaching critical technical levels while macro catalysts continue building pressure underneath the surface. Nikkhil’s focus this week is simple: patience, confirmation, and execution around the levels that matter, not emotional trading or chasing momentum after the move has already happened.
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Team Moneytize