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Welcome to this week’s forecast from Team Moneytize, covering the trading week starting 12th May.
With the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged, Mr Powell has signalled that future cuts depend entirely on upcoming inflation data. Meanwhile, rate cuts are not expected until late 2025. This opens the door for short-term corrections in USD, but the broader bearish trajectory remains intact.
Additionally, this week brings the UK GDP release, and volatility in key pairs like EURUSD and USDJPY is anticipated.
Let’s dive into what Nikkhil is seeing across the charts this week:
DXY (Dollar Index)
On the monthly timeframe, Nikkhil highlights a classic bearish cycle: a sharp drop, a corrective rally capped at the 78.6%–85.4% retracement, and now a resumed move lower. Long-term, the magnet zone sits near 82.2, while a more immediate confluence zone forms around 96.52 to 97.30.
The daily chart reveals no bullish divergence; rather, any recent strength is corrective. On the 4H, bullish divergence has led to a short-term bounce. Price could reach 101.04 to 102.50, possibly extending to 103, before the downtrend resumes.
WTI (Crude Oil)
Crude Oil is painting a textbook correction. On the monthly, the recent bullish leg failed at the 78.6% retracement, reinforcing a broader bearish bias. Nikkhil’s long-term target remains $40, with confluence zones between $39 and $40 acting as magnets.
On the weekly, buyers appear exhausted, with bearish extensions pointing lower. The daily chart confirms sellers slowing, and divergence suggests a temporary corrective rally. Nikkhil sees possible pullbacks to $66–$70 before the next wave down resumes.
EURUSD
EURUSD remains in a long-term bullish structure. On the monthly, price bounced off the 78% retracement with bullish divergence and a confirmed breakout of the falling trendline. First long-term target: 1.2170.
On the daily, short-term bearish divergence has created a correction, but higher timeframes still support the uptrend. Nikkhil marks 1.1135 to 1.1187 as a powerful support zone, ideal for long setups.
USDJPY
After a prolonged bullish run, USDJPY may be entering reversal territory.
On the monthly, bearish divergence is forming at key resistance near 149. Nikkhil’s bearish extension points toward 137.56 as a long-term target. On the daily, price has retraced to 50%, with the 78% retracement around 148–149 providing the sell zone.
Until price closes above 149, the plan is to sell the rise.
XAUUSD (Gold)
Gold remains firmly bullish across all higher timeframes.
On the monthly and weekly, no signs of divergence are present. Support is well defined at $3,200, and price remains above key retracements.
On the 4H, minor divergence triggered a pullback, but support held. Nikkhil now sees upside targets at $3,434, $3,508, and ultimately $3,643.
His plan: Buy the dip, hold for the next rally.
This Week's Trading Map
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Stay patient. Stay precise.