Welcome back to this week’s Moneytize Forex Forecast. The market is stepping into one of the most important macro weeks for gold in the past two months, and according to Nikkhil, the next few sessions could set the tone for dollar strength, precious metals, and risk assets heading deeper into the quarter. Friday’s NFP report delivered a mixed signal to the market. Headline jobs beat expectations strongly, but softer wage growth kept the Federal Reserve rate cut narrative alive and prevented the dollar from staging a meaningful recovery. Now, all eyes turn to Tuesday and Wednesday’s inflation data releases, with CPI, Core CPI, and PPI all landing in the same week. That combination has the potential to inject major volatility across gold, the dollar index, and NASDAQ - and Nikkhil has mapped out the exact levels that matter most before the market reacts.
DXY (Dollar Index)
On the US Dollar Index, Nikkhil explains that the broader structure still leans bearish after the previous bullish impulse failed with bearish divergence on the higher time frames. The correction lower remains intact for now, but the market is entering the week sitting on temporary support with short-term bullish pressure building. On the hourly structure, the dollar is holding above the 14.6 to 23.6 fib zone, and Nikkhil is watching for a corrective bounce toward the 98.23 to 98.30 resistance region before sellers potentially regain control. The key level remains 98.40. If the dollar breaks and closes above that zone with continuation, the current bearish thesis would be invalidated completely. Until then, the expectation remains for temporary strength followed by renewed downside pressure - especially if inflation undershoots expectations again.
NASDAQ (US100)
On NASDAQ, the structure continues to show resilience despite expectations for short-term corrective dips. Nikkhil points out that buyers are still maintaining momentum on the higher time frames, with no meaningful bearish divergence yet appearing on the four-hour chart. Multiple bullish extension structures continue pointing higher, and the broader target zone remains around the psychological 30,000 region. In the short term, however, temporary pullbacks are expected if the dollar strengthens early in the week. Nikkhil is closely monitoring support around 29,095 and 29,045 initially, followed by deeper support around 28,944 and the broader 28,860 area if volatility expands.
Importantly, Nikkhil views these dips as opportunities rather than reversals. As long as the broader bullish structure remains intact, he expects buyers to defend support aggressively before continuation higher toward 29,880 and potentially the 30,000 psychological zone.
The temporary pullback could create the exact entry traders have been waiting for.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is where the biggest focus sits this week. Nikkhil explains that three major forces are colliding at once: softer wage growth keeping rate cuts alive, inflation data that could surprise markets again, and institutional positioning that shows smart money quietly reducing short exposure while retail traders continue selling. Historically, Core CPI has undershot expectations in four of the last six releases. If that pattern repeats this week, the dollar could weaken sharply and hand gold the catalyst needed for another aggressive rally.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a corrective bearish structure on the higher time frames, but the shorter-term bullish rebuilding phase is still developing. On the weekly and daily charts, bearish divergence triggered the initial correction lower, but the recent recovery structure continues building in waves. Nikkhil highlights the broader future resistance zone between 4,985 and 5,031 as the ultimate upside target if buyers regain momentum after the CPI reaction.
On the lower time frames, however, gold is showing signs of temporary exhaustion. After Friday’s NFP release, price failed to print a convincing higher high, while bearish divergence developed on the hourly structure. Nikkhil expects the market to open with a short-term corrective dip as the dollar attempts a temporary bounce higher. The first downside zone sits around 4,682 to 4,660, followed by 4,630, while the strongest accumulation zone remains between 4,600 and 4,580.
This is where Nikkhil’s plan becomes especially important. He explains that any temporary drop toward those support zones is currently being treated as a buying opportunity rather than a bearish continuation setup. Traders looking for staggered entries could begin scaling around 4,650 or 4,630, while the strongest buy reaction is expected closer to the 4,600 region if price reaches it. From there, the first upside objective would be a retest of the current highs near 4,766, followed by 4,867, before potentially expanding into the broader 4,985 to 5,031 target region.
At the same time, Nikkhil is clear about invalidation. If gold breaks and closes below the 4,556 to 4,539 region, the bullish thesis would be invalidated and the structure would shift materially.
This CPI reaction zone could define gold’s next major move.
Preparation matters most during weeks like this. Volatility around inflation data can create emotional reactions and false moves, but Nikkhil’s focus remains the same: identify structure, wait for confirmation, and execute with discipline around high-probability levels. With the dollar sitting at a key inflection point, NASDAQ pressing toward psychological highs, and gold preparing for a potentially explosive CPI reaction, this week’s setups demand patience and clarity.
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Team Moneytize