This week’s forecast is shaping up to be one of the most important ones on the calendar. Crude oil is pushing aggressively higher after breaking resistance, gold is holding firm in the middle of geopolitical tension without yet fully exploding, and the macro backdrop is loaded with market-moving data. We have GDP numbers tied to the yen, pound, and dollar, CPI data for the euro area and the United States, PCE on deck as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and crude oil inventories arriving just as Middle East tensions continue to influence sentiment. Nikkhil has mapped out the key levels and the most likely reactions so you can approach the week with clarity instead of chasing headlines.
DXY (Dollar Index)
On the dollar index, last Friday’s NFP report created exactly the kind of mixed signal that can trap impatient traders. The headline miss initially knocked the dollar lower after the US economy lost 92,000 jobs, but stronger average hourly earnings kept the inflation story alive. That matters because even if growth is softening, sticky wage pressure can slow the Fed’s ability to ease. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty is keeping safe-haven demand in play, which means the broader dollar structure has not truly broken. Nikkhil’s view is that this weakness looks more like a corrective move than the start of a major bearish reversal.
Technically, the bullish structure on DXY still holds unless price loses the deeper support zone. Nikkhil is watching the early part of the week for that corrective dip to finish, with support around 98.10 and deeper protection below that near 97.61. As long as that broader floor remains intact, the expectation is for the dollar to stabilize and rotate higher again into the middle of the week, potentially stretching toward the 100.17 to 100.41 resistance area and possibly as high as 101.34 by the time CPI becomes the main catalyst. That makes the reaction at those higher levels critical, because it could determine whether the next move is continuation or reversal.
EURUSD
EURUSD is telling the other side of the same story. After a strong rally over recent months, the pair is beginning to show signs that upside momentum is fading. The rejection near the highs and the weakening structure suggest that this bullish phase may now be transitioning into a correction. With the dollar still supported by inflation risk and safe-haven demand, euro strength is becoming harder to sustain unless the market gets a clear reason to weaken the greenback.
Nikkhil’s framework here is straightforward. He sees the broader pressure remaining to the downside unless EURUSD can reclaim and close above the key invalidation zone. In the near term, a short rebound is still possible, especially if the dollar completes its early-week pullback, but rallies into 1.1750, 1.1779, or even 1.1840 are being treated as potential selling opportunities rather than proof of renewed strength. The major bearish target remains 1.1490, and only a daily close above 1.1867 would invalidate that view. That makes this a market where patience matters more than prediction. The rebound could come first, but what matters is whether buyers can truly reclaim control.
WTI (Crude Oil)
Crude oil is the market commanding attention right now. WTI closed the week around $91 after a very strong bullish expansion, driven in large part by intensifying geopolitical tension and the war premium now embedded into price. Beyond the headlines, this move matters because sustained strength in oil can feed directly into inflation expectations, which then feeds back into the dollar, rates, and broader risk sentiment. That is why crude is not just a commodity trade this week - it is also a macro signal.
Nikkhil remains structurally bullish on oil, but he is also clear that chasing an already extended move is poor execution. The broader pattern still points higher, with the nearest major resistance around $94.94 to $95, and if momentum continues after a healthy reset, the next upside targets sit around $97.35 to $99.26, followed by $101 to $102. The preferred plan is to let price come back into value first, with buy interest focused around $84.31 to $84.50 and deeper support near $80 if the market offers a larger pullback. If price rallies directly into $95 without that reset, Nikkhil expects that zone to become the place where profit-taking and a corrective move may begin. This level could trigger the next major reaction in crude.
SILVER
Silver remains one of the more interesting charts on the board because it is refusing to break cleanly lower even while the dollar tries to regain strength. That tells us silver is being supported by more than FX flows alone. Inflation expectations, industrial demand, and strength across the broader metals complex are still giving this market a constructive undertone. But after such a sharp move higher, silver is no longer in the easy part of the trend. It is now entering the kind of zone where corrections, rebounds, and false breaks can all appear quickly.
Nikkhil’s base case still leans bullish as long as the deeper structure remains protected. The main invalidation level sits at 76.36 on a daily closing basis. Above that, any deeper retracement into the 76.36 to 77 zone is being treated as a potential buy opportunity, with upside targets in the 89 to 90 resistance band first, then 95, followed by 100.56 and even 104 if momentum expands. There is also a shorter-term scenario in play where silver bounces early in the week and stalls into resistance around 87 or 89 to 90 before rotating lower again into support. The key point is that Nikkhil is not interested in aggressively shorting that weakness - he wants the market to come back into support and then show bullish reaction.
GOLD
Gold may be the most important chart of the week because it is sitting between two powerful forces. On one side, a firmer dollar and inflation data risk can create short-term pressure. On the other, geopolitical tension, rising oil prices, and persistent inflation concerns continue to support gold as a defensive asset. That is why gold has not delivered the explosive safe-haven move many expected, but it also has not broken down in a meaningful way. According to Nikkhil, this does not look like a broken market. It looks like a market coiling inside a more complex setup.
The technical picture on gold still leans bullish, but it is no longer clean enough for careless execution. The key support area begins around 5080 to 5126, with local support near 5064 already respected into Friday’s close. The first major resistance sits at 5192 to 5200, and if that breaks cleanly with confirmation, the move can extend toward 5268 to 5316, with 5343 slightly above as a larger resistance objective. If gold loses momentum and pulls back more deeply, Nikkhil is watching 4975 to 4938 as the major support band that must hold to preserve the bullish plan. A daily close below 4940 would invalidate that view and force a reassessment. Until then, the bigger backdrop still favors buyers, even if price action stays volatile around CPI. Gold is at a decision zone now.
This is the kind of week where preparation will matter far more than reaction.
The themes are clear, the levels are defined, and the catalysts are already on the calendar.
Nikkhil has laid out where patience is required, where confirmation matters, and where the strongest opportunities could develop if price behaves as expected.
Stay disciplined, stay selective, and let the market come to your levels.
The levels are live.
The moves are coming.
Watch the full breakdown now and get your plan in place before the herd reacts.
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