Welcome back to your weekly market outlook. This is shaping up to be a high-impact week across the board. With Jerome Powell scheduled to speak and NFP data on deck, volatility is likely to expand, and fast. Add in rising geopolitical tensions pushing oil above $100 and inflation fears creeping back into the narrative, and we have a market environment that demands precision. Nikkhil has mapped out the key levels and scenarios so you can approach this week with clarity and control. Let’s break it down.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The dollar has begun to show strength after forming a triple bottom structure supported by bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Price is now pushing into the psychological 100 level, a key resistance zone, and momentum remains firmly with buyers in the short term. Nikkhil expects this level to break, with a likely continuation toward the 101 region, which aligns with a major confluence resistance.
However, this move may be nearing exhaustion. If price reaches 101 and prints bearish divergence, especially around the time of NFP, that could trigger a short-term pullback. The key is not just the breakout, but how price behaves after it. A clean push and rejection could set the tone for the rest of the week.
Crude Oil
Oil has been on a parabolic run, driven heavily by geopolitical tensions, particularly around US-Iran developments. Price recently spiked toward the 116 region but failed to sustain above it, signaling a temporary exhaustion. Despite this, the broader structure remains bullish across higher timeframes.
In the short term, the key level to watch is 105. A confirmed break above this level could open the door toward 108 - 110, and potentially extend into 112 - 113. On the downside, failure to break higher could send price back toward 96 or even 92. Given the fundamental sensitivity, this market is highly reactive, and Nikkhil emphasizes the importance of tight risk management here.
Silver (XAGUSD)
Silver is currently sitting at a critical support zone around 67 - 68, with early signs of a potential short-term bullish recovery on lower timeframes. The 4H and 1H charts show early divergence and a break of the descending trendline, suggesting a possible move toward 77 if momentum builds.
That said, the bigger picture remains uncertain. If price fails to hold above 67–68, the downside opens quickly toward 63 - 64, and potentially even lower if the dollar continues strengthening. Nikkhil is approaching this with cautious bullish bias, but only with confirmation and tight invalidation levels.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is at a pivotal decision point. After rallying over 12% from its lows, price is now caught between major support at 4,266 - 4,153 and resistance at 4,550 - 4,562. The recent structure shows a corrective downtrend with no clear bullish divergence yet, meaning downside risk is still very real, especially if the dollar continues higher.
If gold breaks and holds above 4,562, it opens the path toward 4,855 and potentially higher. But if price loses 4,266 with a strong daily close and retest, the downside could accelerate toward 3,987, and even deeper into the 3,700 - 3,600 zone.
Right now, this is a conditional market. Direction will likely be dictated by how DXY reacts around 101 and how the upcoming fundamentals unfold. This level could trigger a major move.
We’re sitting at key levels across multiple instruments, with major catalysts ready to hit the market. Patience, discipline, and execution will matter more than ever..
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