Welcome back to this week’s Moneytize Forex Forecast. It’s shaping up to be a technically driven week following last week’s central bank decisions, where a broadly steady rate environment. paired with a cautiously hawkish Fed, triggered sharp reactions across metals. The key question now is whether we’re seeing a temporary correction or the early stages of a deeper move. Nikkhil has mapped out the critical levels across the dollar, metals, oil, and indices so you can approach the week with clarity and precision.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The dollar index is showing clear signs of structural weakness after failing to sustain its recent bullish push. On the higher timeframes, the rising trendline has already been compromised, and price is now reacting from a key 50% retracement support around 96.4. However, the broader structure remains bearish, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows reinforced by momentum divergence. On the daily and lower timeframes, the recent breakout attempt above 100.19 failed, confirming exhaustion rather than continuation.
Nikkhil is watching for early-week continuation to the downside, with 98.5 acting as the first key level. A clean break below this opens the path toward 97.7 and potentially 96.3. Any bounce from current levels is expected to be corrective unless price can reclaim the major resistance cluster around 100.7 - 101.4. Until then, the bias remains bearish, which could provide tailwinds for metals.
Crude Oil
Crude oil continues to hold a strong bullish macro structure, supported by both technical positioning and underlying geopolitical catalysts. After the recent spike into the 119 - 120 resistance zone, price pulled back but quickly reclaimed support around 90, signaling continued buyer interest. On the higher timeframes, the structure remains intact, with no meaningful bearish divergence to suggest exhaustion.
In the short term, oil is consolidating between 90 support and the psychological 100 resistance. Nikkhil is watching for a breakout above 100 followed by a clean retest to confirm continuation. If price breaks above the 119 - 120 zone with momentum, the next projected move extends toward 133 - 135. Until then, this range offers opportunity, but only with confirmation. This range could be setting up the next major expansion.
Nifty50
For the first time, Nikkhil breaks down Nifty50 - and the structure is at a critical inflection point. On the higher timeframe, the broader trend remains bullish, but the recent move has shifted into a confirmed corrective phase after a completed bearish structure on the weekly chart. Price has now reached a major support zone around 22,911, aligning with key Fibonacci levels.
Momentum is showing early signs of exhaustion in the downside move, with developing bullish divergence on lower timeframes. Nikkhil expects a corrective bounce to begin forming, with upside targets around 24,460 and potentially 24,800 if momentum builds. However, this remains a counter-trend move unless the falling trendline is broken convincingly. This is a technical bounce setup but timing is everything.
Silver (XAGUSD)
Silver is showing increasing bearish momentum after breaking below the key 72 - 73 level discussed in prior forecasts. The structure now reflects strong downside continuation, with clean lower highs and lower lows across timeframes and no meaningful bullish divergence yet. Sellers remain firmly in control.
Nikkhil is tracking the next major magnet zone around 60, where multiple technical projections align. This is where the market could begin to slow down, but confirmation is essential. A valid reversal would require both bullish divergence and strong reversal candles. Until then, any bounce toward 71.5 - 73 remains a potential selling opportunity. This level could define the next phase for silver.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold has experienced a sharp correction, but importantly, the macro bullish structure is still intact. Price is now approaching a critical support zone between 4,368 and 4,377, aligned with a rising trendline on the higher timeframe. This is where Nikkhil expects a reaction, potentially a liquidity grab followed by a bounce.
If buyers step in at this zone and price breaks above 4,768 - 4,824, the next move could target 4,979 and even 5,000. However, if the market fails to hold and breaks below the deeper support zone at 4,176 - 4,264 with confirmation, it would signal a much larger bearish shift. For now, the expectation leans toward a controlled correction rather than a full breakdown. Gold is at a decision point.
The levels are clearly defined, now it’s about waiting for confirmation and executing with discipline.
Markets are positioning for their next move, and those who are prepared will be ready to act when it unfolds.
Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast
We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize