Welcome to this week’s Moneytize Forecast. It’s a major week across the markets, with the US Dollar Index pushing higher, metals reacting from key levels, crude oil showing signs of seller exhaustion, and NFP due on Thursday because of the US Independence Day holiday. Nikkhil has mapped out the key reaction zones across DXY, crude oil, silver, and gold so you can approach the week with clarity instead of chasing emotion after the move has already happened.
DXY
On the US Dollar Index, Nikkhil is watching a market that has already broken above its weekly channel resistance and is continuing to march higher without any clear bearish divergence. The broader structure still supports upside continuation, with 102.68 acting as the first major zone above current price, followed by 104.40 and 105.76 if momentum keeps building.
On the lower timeframes, though, Nikkhil is not expecting the move to go straight up without a reset. He is looking for a short-term corrective dip first, with 102.01 to 102.58 acting as the key support magnet area before the next potential push higher. A break out of the lower-timeframe bearish correction would confirm that buyers are ready to continue the larger bullish move.
CRUDEOIL
Crude oil is moving inside a broader bearish structure, with lower highs and lower lows still defining the trend. Price remains inside a falling channel, but Nikkhil is now watching something important: bullish divergence forming near the lower end of the channel, suggesting sellers may be getting exhausted in the short term.
If crude breaks higher from this zone, the first major upside target comes around 76, followed by 82.46, which lines up with the upper boundary of the smaller falling channel. That 82 area is where Nikkhil expects the market may react and potentially turn lower again. However, if crude delivers a sharper bounce and breaks out of the smaller channel, the move could extend toward 87 to 91.20 before the broader bearish continuation resumes.
This crude oil bounce could be tradable, but only if the breakout confirms.
XAGUSD (SILVER)
Silver remains bearish on the weekly structure, with no confirmed reversal in sight. Nikkhil highlighted that silver has broken below the lower edge of its sideways channel, and in these conditions, the market often duplicates the previous leg down. That keeps the downside bias active unless price can reclaim key resistance levels.
The immediate resistance zone sits around 61 to 62.52, with 67.48 acting as the major level that would need to break to confirm a stronger bullish reversal attempt. For now, Nikkhil expects silver to remain inside the falling channel, potentially bouncing toward resistance before continuing lower. The next major support zones he is watching are around 53 to 54, then 46, and eventually 43 to 46 as a long-run reaction area. If that fails, silver could extend toward the 39 to 40 region before a more meaningful reversal develops. A close above 70 would invalidate the bearish plan. Silver is approaching levels where reactions can get sharp.
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Gold is the main focus this week. Last Sunday, Nikkhil marked 3,965 as the key zone to watch, and price tapped that level almost exactly before bouncing strongly and closing the week near 4,088. The big question now is whether that bounce is the beginning of a bullish reversal, or just a relief rally before another leg lower.
Nikkhil’s view is measured. The weekly structure is still bearish, with lower highs and lower lows still in play. For the first soft confirmation that sellers are weakening, gold needs a daily close above the 4,214 to 4,268 zone. Above that, the bigger break-of-structure level sits around 4,380 to 4,385. Until those levels are reclaimed, Nikkhil is treating the current bounce as a potential retest before continuation lower.
On the short-term charts, gold has taken support around 4067 and may continue higher toward 4,120 first. If buyers keep control, the next upside area sits around 4,204 to 4,237, with 4,293 to 4,322 acting as a deeper retracement zone above that. But if price rejects from the 4,214 to 4,268 region, Nikkhil is watching for downside continuation toward 3,795, then the major 3,624 to 3,574 zone. In a worst-case extension, gold could even push toward 3,309 to 3,153 before a larger reversal forms. Gold’s 3,965 bounce looks powerful, but the confirmation level is still ahead.
This is a week where patience matters. DXY may need one more dip before continuation, crude oil is trying to bounce inside a bearish trend, silver remains under pressure unless key resistance breaks, and gold is sitting between a short-term bullish reaction and a larger bearish structure. With NFP due Thursday, volatility can build quickly, so the focus is preparation, confirmation, and disciplined execution.
Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast
We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize