Welcome to NFP Week.
With Non-Farm Payrolls on the horizon, expect the entire forex landscape to redraw itself. If you're reactive this week, you’ll almost certainly miss the moves.
Nikkhil’s laid out the zones, the timing, and the setups - so you’re dialled in and prepared.
From a USD Index ready to fake out, to Crude Oil’s final flush, to Euro’s tipping point, he’s dissected each instrument down to the key fib zones, divergence confirmations, and structural make-or-break levels.
Plus, we’re now rolling out smart automation with AURUM EA—our transition from 100% manual execution to precision-assisted trading.
Less stress. More discipline. Better results.
Let’s go!
USD Index (DXY)
On the monthly chart, DXY remains locked in a downtrend, rallying only to hover near the 50 % retracement zone, around 96.47 - 96.50, after retracing from its 2023 highs. This is a strong magnet region where Nikkhil expects a pause or temporary bounce back toward the 102.19 level. Sliding down to the weekly frame, he sees momentum fading, a sign sellers are tiring. Support lies precisely where multiple Fibonacci levels cluster, making it a critical point to watch. Zooming to daily, Nikkhil applied a second bearish Fibonacci extension using the first wave down. The result? DXY is right on a massive cluster around 96.50 again, a potential launchpad for a bounce. He’s eyeing bullish divergence forming, but buyers must reclaim above 101.65 (or break above the descending trendline) to validate reversal. The 4‑hour chart confirms bullish intraday momentum with a confirmed MACD crossover and visible bullish divergence. Short‑term dips below 96.50 are likely traps before a rebound. But until buyers convincingly break higher, caution and discipline are critical.
Crude Oil (CL)
The monthly perspective still shows a lower-low setup with bullish divergence, signaling the potential for a rebound from extended oversold conditions, but confirmation remains on hold. Nikkhil marked the monthly Fibonacci support around $55 (61.8 %), held since 2020 lows. If he breaks and closes above the $67 monthly area, that opens the door to the next magnet at $78.42. The weekly chart adds clarity: bullish divergence formed with a failed resistance try at $75-76 during geopolitical tensions. Early breakout structure suggests trend reversal, especially since the descending weekly channel is already broken. On daily, a false breakout above the trendline sparked a rally, and the 61.8 % retracement near $67.5 is proving pivotal resistance. A pullback to that level may be the last shakeout before another leg up. The 4‑hour timeframe is consolidating, failing to confirm bullish momentum, but the MACD remains bearish for now. On the 1‑hour, buyers attempt support near $67. However, until he closes above that resistance convincingly, the path remains upward, but only after the dust settles. A dip to $63.50 or further to $60–59 would be the ideal springboard for fresh entries.
EURUSD
The Euro has been riding the bullish wave, fuelled by sustained USD weakness. On the monthly chart, price remains aligned with the long-term uptrend, bouncing cleanly off a key fib support zone between 78.6% and 85.4%, backed by confirmed bullish divergence. The falling trendline has been broken, giving control to the buyers for now. But as we zoom in, the picture shifts. On the daily and 4H charts, EURUSD is pushing into a heavy confluence of fib extensions between 1.1697 and 1.1773, with signs of momentum loss and a pending bearish divergence. A second cluster of resistance is forming around 1.1828 to 1.1873, aligning with projected reversal zones via reverse fibs. This is not the time to chase long positions. The asset is entering overbought territory. Halt buying at current levels and prepare for short-term pullbacks, because they present high-probability sell opportunities. NFP could be the final catalyst to flip sentiment.
USDCAD
The monthly trend is bearish, having reversed sharply from the 78.6 % Fibonacci resistance around 1.4633. Current prices hover near the 61.8 % fib zone (1.3677), forming potent value. On weekly, support here is holding with a slowing MACD, an opening for bullish retracement. Indeed, daily charts confirm a tight bullish divergence and nearing trendline breakout. The trigger point? A bullish structure break above 1.3747 would likely head toward my first target at 1.3854, and eventually challenge the 1.40 psychological mark. Short-term dips into the 1.3677 - 1.3700 area appear ideal for initiating entries with a clear risk/reward setup.
XAUUSD (Gold)
Gold remains positioned as the ultimate safe-haven, and it’s preparing for a decisive week with NFP on deck. The monthly trend remains bullish with no retracement signs; instead, higher highs and lows continue to build momentum. On weekly, momentum is tapering, but there’s no structural damage yet. Moving to daily, gold has formed a bearish triple-top pattern with confirmed bearish divergence. The rising trendline has been breached, signaling bearish control to the first target at 3232, followed by 3174. The 4‑hour retracement to the 61.8 % zone near 3174 - 3374 is a key support to watch. That region (3374 - 3174) is where long-term players accumulate, but, especially for this week, Nikkhil’s bullish thesis is invalidated by a daily close below 3318. Until Friday’s NFP verdict, expect gold to range between those levels at the mercy of dollar and geopolitical news.
