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Welcome to this week’s Moneytize Forecast. After a confusing week where gold and crude moved in the same direction and caught many retail traders off guard, Nikkhil’s message is clear: follow the market, don’t fight it. With the US Fed interest rate announcement coming on 17 June, this is a week where preparation matters more than prediction. Nikkhil has mapped out the key levels, reaction zones, and confirmation points so traders can approach the week with patience and structure.
DXY
On the Dollar Index, Nikkhil is watching a market that remains rangebound between 95.81 and 101.07. Price has struggled to break higher around the 101.07 resistance area, and on the daily structure, the recent upside move has already shown signs of exhaustion with bearish divergence and a break of structure. For the start of the new trading week, Nikkhil is anticipating short-term bearish pressure on DXY, with the first downside zones sitting around 99.19, followed by 98.67 and 98.41.
The key confirmation will come from how price reacts after any short-term bounce. If DXY continues to reject from resistance and breaks lower through the current structure, Nikkhil will be watching for a move into the deeper support zone around 97.25. With the Fed announcement ahead, this is not a week to chase. It is a week to wait for confirmation and let the chart show its hand.
Gold
Gold is the main focus this week after breaking below the support zone Nikkhil highlighted near 4,140. The important detail is that the break happened on a daily closing basis, not a weekly one. That means the support quality has been damaged, but not completely invalidated. Still, Nikkhil is clear that the setup has changed, and any bounce from the current area should be treated as corrective unless buyers prove themselves.
On the higher timeframes, Nikkhil is now watching 3,965 as the major support level. This aligns with the 38.2% retracement zone and is the key downside area he expects gold to test in the coming week. Above current price, the resistance area between 4,658 and 4,686 remains critical. Unless gold can achieve a convincing daily close above that zone, Nikkhil expects sellers to remain in control and any upside movement to form another lower high before continuation lower.
On the 4-hour structure, gold remains bearish with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Nikkhil notes that momentum is oversold and a corrective bounce is possible, especially toward the 4,540 to 4,600 resistance region. If price rejects around 4,561, that could invite sellers back into the market with 3965 as the downside target. On the other hand, if gold retests 3,965 as support and shows a valid reaction, Nikkhil will be watching for a potential buy opportunity targeting back toward 4,500.
The major invalidation level is also clear. A direct close above 4,540 to 4,600 would weaken the bearish case and signal that buyers may be stepping back into control. But if gold breaks below 3,965, the next higher-timeframe support zone opens between 3,568 and 3,640. This is why the 3,965 level matters so much this week - it is not just support, it is the line that could decide the next major leg. This level could trigger a major reaction in gold.
With the Fed announcement on 17 June, this week calls for caution, patience, and professional execution.
The market has already shifted, and Nikkhil’s plan is focused on reacting to confirmation instead of forcing trades before the levels are tested.
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We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize