Welcome to this week’s Moneytize Forecast. After Friday’s post-NFP move, gold has become the centre of attention. Price dropped sharply, wiping out late buyers and leaving a heavy red candle on the chart. But as Nikkhil explains in this week’s breakdown, this is exactly where traders need to slow down. The obvious reaction is to short the weakness, but the real opportunity may come from waiting for price to reach the right zone, react properly, and confirm before taking action. This is also a CPI week, which means gold and the dollar could both see sharp movement depending on how the data lands. Nikkhil has mapped out the key levels, the likely reaction zones, and the exact invalidation point traders need to keep in mind before committing to a direction.
DXY
Nikkhil begins with the Dollar Index, where price has started forming a base around 97.08 and has now pushed higher following the NFP breakout. On the higher time frames, the dollar is showing bullish structure, but after the recent move, it is also looking stretched in the short term. That means Nikkhil is not looking to chase the breakout blindly. Instead, he is watching for a pullback toward the 100 area, with 99.54 to 99.48 acting as the key support zone.
If DXY respects that support and continues printing higher highs, the next upside levels Nikkhil is watching are 100.58, followed by the broader resistance zone between 101 and 101.70. Beyond that, 102.55 becomes the major line in the sand for the longer-term bullish continuation. For this week, the plan is clear: buy the dips while the structure holds, but do not ignore the fact that the bigger decision comes near 102.55.
Gold
Gold is where the biggest setup is developing this week. After dropping around 3% in a single day and closing near 4,327, many traders will be tempted to short into the weakness. But Nikkhil is clear: this is not the place to get emotional. Gold is already sitting close to a deeper reaction area, and the better plan is to wait for price to either bounce into resistance or flush into the accumulation zone before making a decision.
On the upside, the first short-term resistance sits around 4,384 to 4,397, with a higher resistance level around 4,440. If gold bounces into that zone and rejects, short-term sellers may look for continuation lower, with 4,250 and 4,200 as the first downside targets. But Nikkhil is not interested in shorting at the current level. He is waiting for cleaner pricing, cleaner confirmation, and a better risk zone.
The bigger opportunity Nikkhil is watching is the potential accumulation zone below 4,300. The first major support comes in around 4,267, followed by 4,213, with the deeper high-volume area sitting around 4,155. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, gold could flush quickly into 4,267 and 4,213, and possibly stretch toward 4,155 before a larger reversal begins to build. If CPI comes in softer than expected, Nikkhil expects the deeper move to be ruled out, with gold potentially bouncing from around 4,267 or between 4,250 and 4,205.
The key invalidation is also clear. Nikkhil’s bullish accumulation plan is invalidated if gold prints a daily or weekly bearish candle close below 4155. Until then, the focus is not on chasing the selloff, but on watching how price behaves as it moves into the lower reaction zones. Gold is sitting near the area where impatient traders can get trapped.
This week is not about reacting emotionally to one large candle. It is about understanding where the market is likely to trap late sellers, where the dollar may pull back before continuing, and how CPI could accelerate the next move. The traders who stay patient and wait for confirmation will be in a far better position than those chasing price after the move has already happened.
Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast
We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize