Welcome to this week’s Moneytize Forecast. Last week, Nikkhil called for gold to move lower into the 4,375 area and price delivered almost precisely, dropping into 4,365 before bouncing more than $200 into 4,595. But while many traders may look at that bounce and assume the market has turned bullish, Nikkhil is making one thing clear: gold has not yet taken control to the upside.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold closed the week around 4,540, still below the key 4,560 - 4,574 resistance zone. That means the recent rally has not confirmed a bullish structural break yet. Instead, Nikkhil sees this as a failed rally for now, with the market likely to drift lower first before offering a cleaner opportunity.
The key mistake traders may make this week is shorting gold if it spikes below 4,400. According to Nikkhil, that move would not automatically confirm bearish continuation. In fact, a sharp move below 4,400 could become the exact bear trap that shakes out early buyers, triggers stops, and creates the conditions for reversal. This is why Nikkhil is not looking to sell weakness below 4,400, he is watching for value buying zones instead.
On the chart, the main resistance remains between 4,560 and 4,574. Buyers briefly pushed above this area on Friday, but they failed to secure a candle close above it. Until that level is broken with strength, gold can still retrace lower into the value zone around 4,399 - 4,415. If price builds a base there and gives confirmation, that is where Nikkhil begins watching for buy opportunities.
Because this is NFP week, Nikkhil is also prepared for volatility to expand later in the week. If gold creates one more low, the next key downside levels to watch are 4,309, 4,278, and potentially the broader value zone around 4,215 - 4,268. These are not areas Nikkhil is looking to short into, they are areas he is watching for accumulation and possible reversal confirmation.
The upside targets depend on how deep the next retracement becomes. Once the setup confirms, Nikkhil is watching 4,703 as the first major target, followed by 4,774, with 4,889 as the larger upside objective. He also made it clear that these targets may not complete in one week, especially with NFP creating the possibility of a slower start followed by sharp volatility into Thursday or Friday.
A move below 4,400 may look bearish on the surface, but Nikkhil is not treating it as a reason to panic-sell. He is watching it as a potential trap, a liquidity flush designed to shake traders out before the real move begins. The plan is simple: wait for value, wait for confirmation, then execute with precision.
Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast
Also, mark your calendar for this week’s live sessions. On Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. UAE time, Nikkhil will be breaking down silver and crude oil. On Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. UAE time, he will return with live gold analysis and updated midweek levels.
We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize