Forex Weekly Forecast with Technical Analysis on July 6 to July 10'26

Gold ripped roughly $200 off the 3,941 low and is now sitting on the single most important level of the week. Weak jobs data lit the fuse, and the bounce played out almost exactly as Nikkhil mapped it in his midweek analysis.

But the real test is ahead. Wednesday's Fed minutes could fuel this rally or kill it on a single candle. One exact zone stands between gold and a much bigger move — and three separate tools Nikkhil tracks are all pointing at the same number. Break it, and the target map runs higher than most expect; hold below it, and gold could hand back everything it just gained.

This week the story isn't only gold. Silver, crude oil and the dollar index are all telling the same story right now, so this week's breakdown covers all four.

Watch the full breakdown (0:00)

DXY

On the daily, the dollar broke structure to the upside after a lower-low base, and the pullback inside its parallel channel is corrective — the expectation is continuation higher toward the 102.67 magnet.

On the four-hour, the higher-high, higher-low sequence is intact with no divergence, so the current dip is just a pullback. Price has already reached the 50% retracement, with the deepest support band at 99.48–99.65. A drop below 99.48 is the line that invalidates the bullish plan.

A firmer dollar is a headwind for gold, so this is the chart to watch alongside it.
‍

Watch the DXY read (1:11)



CRUDEOIL

Crude is in a corrective bearish structure on the weekly timeframe, and price is now resting on a critical support zone around 66.74–67.00, where bullish divergence is already building. Nikkhil treats a bounce from here as a short term reversal signal, with the possibility of a few false breakdowns first.

A confirmed break above 71.82–72.00 would open continuation toward 78.79 and then the 84–85 region, with interim targets at 79.55 and 84.32. A sustained hold below the support band is what would invalidate the bullish setup.
‍

Watch the crude oil breakdown (2:53)



XAGUSD (SILVER)

Silver's weekly and daily structures are still bearish, but corrective within a bullish monthly trend — and the daily now shows completed bullish divergence, a sign sellers are exhausting. On the lower time frames the turn is clearer: the one-hour has flipped bullish, printing higher highs and higher lows after a divergence-driven breakout.

The plan is to treat dips as buying opportunities as long as price holds above the 58.97–59.00 area, with a possible corrective dip toward 60.44–60.45 first. Targets stack up at 63.60, then 65.51, with the ultimate destination the 68–69 zone. A daily close below 59.41 — and structurally below 57.52 — would invalidate the thesis before those targets are reached. For a full daily reversal, silver still needs to reclaim 70.12.
‍

 Watch the silver setup (5:54)



XAUUSD (GOLD)

This is where the biggest setup is developing. On the weekly, gold remains bearish but corrective within a bullish monthly trend. On the daily, price is trading below the 50% mark of the drop at 4,416, but has printed bullish divergence on both the histogram and the MACD line — a clear sign of exhaustion in the sellers. Even so, the daily structure only flips on a sustained break above the 4335 break-of-structure level; until that happens, the bounce is treated as corrective.

The lower time frames are already bullish: the four-hour and one-hour have both completed their bullish structures, and the 15-minute is printing clean higher highs and higher lows off support. The pivotal zone is 4,205 — the nearest resistance gold must close above to continue toward the 4,281 magnet and the 4,300 liquidity above it. That 4,281 area is where the tools converge, and it's the ultimate short-term target. On the downside, 4,158 is the nearest support to hold, with a deeper cushion at 4,082.

The whole move hinges on Wednesday's Fed minutes. If gold shows weakness around 4,205, it likely won't reach 4,281 and the rally fades. If it clears that zone, the expectation is continuation into 4,281–4,300, probably followed by bearish divergence or a false breakout there — and then a rotation back down toward 4,035 or slightly deeper. In short: short-term bullish on the 4H and 1H, but with the daily and weekly still bearish, this is a level-to-level trade, not a trend to chase.

Watch the gold structure and target zones (13:39)

What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday — Fed minutes: the catalyst. A dovish read can fuel gold toward 4,281–4,300; weakness at 4,205 hands the gains back toward 4,035.
• Gold 4,205: the pivot. Above it on a close, the target map opens to 4,281–4,300; below it, expect the bounce to fade. Support sits at 4,158, then 4,082.
• Dollar 99.48: the invalidation for the dollar's push toward 102.67 — and a softer dollar is what gives gold room to run.
• Silver and crude: both setting up for corrective bounces — silver toward 63.60, 65.51 and 68–69 while it holds above 59; crude toward 78.79 and 84–85 on a break above 71.82.

Coming up on the channel: midweek live analysis returns Wednesday, timed around the Fed minutes.

Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast

Four markets, one story: corrective bounces inside larger structures, all waiting on Wednesday's Fed minutes to decide the next leg. The discipline is to trade the levels, not the emotion — let gold prove itself above 4,205 before trusting the move toward 4,281, and respect the invalidations if the data disappoints.

The full breakdown is live now on the Moneytize YouTube channel, and the Telegram link in the description gets you into the group for real-time updates through the week.

— The Moneytize Team