Welcome to this week’s Moneytize forex forecast. The trading week starting July 7th is packed with catalysts: from RBA and RBNZ rate decisions to the FOMC minutes and the July 9th tariff deadline. These events are likely to inject significant volatility across USD, AUD, NZD, and gold markets. Nikkhil has broken down the technical structures to help you stay one step ahead and prepare for what could be a pivotal week.
Dollar Index (DXY):
The dollar continues to trade within a corrective structure. On the monthly chart, Nikkhil highlights confluence between fib supports and trendline zones, suggesting the DXY could push slightly lower - potentially toward 95.46 - before a bullish reversal kicks in. The weekly and daily MACD are both hinting at possible bullish divergence, but neither has confirmed yet. On the 4H and 1H charts, we see divergence already forming and a corrective bullish pattern unfolding. If the dollar fails to break below 95.46 convincingly, this could set the stage for the final downward leg - followed by a sharp reversal. Nikkhil is preparing to position on the long side once confirmation aligns across higher time frames.
AUD/USD:
With the RBA decision approaching, AUD/USD sits at a critical inflection. The monthly structure shows a double bottom with bullish divergence and trendline breakout, but price remains below the last swing high, which keeps the move corrective for now. On the weekly, price is nearing the fib resistance zone between 0.6714 and 0.6780. Daily momentum is weakening, and potential bearish divergence is forming. Shorter timeframes confirm exhaustion: the 4H shows divergence and break of structure, while the 1H shows diminishing buyer strength and a confirmed lower high. Nikkhil is looking to short the rallies, with the ideal entry coming after a small pullback and retest.
GBP/NZD:
This cross is approaching a major resistance zone. On the monthly, price is testing both a strong fib resistance (78.6 - 85.4%) and a fib extension level (1.618), both of which align around 2.29 - 2.30. Weekly and daily charts confirm bearish divergence and a completed break of structure. On the 4H, the move is corrective and choppy, with Nikkhil anticipating one final push toward the 2.29 area before a stronger bearish trend resumes. The plan is clear: sell the rallies with stops above 2.32, and prepare to scale in using his AURUM EA around the key resistance zone.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold remains structurally bullish on the higher time frames, but momentum is waning. The weekly and daily MACD histograms are flipping bearish, and price has broken below its rising trendline. Nikkhil expects a false rally - potentially up to 3405 or 3417 - which would offer an ideal area to short. If the July 9th tariff news underwhelms, risk-on sentiment could drive gold lower. He’s targeting 3200, 3175, and possibly 3120 on the downside. Unless gold breaks and closes above 3417 decisively, the plan is to sell into strength.
Crypto Market Cap (Total vs. Total2):
In a special crypto segment, Nikkhil analyzed the chart of Total vs. Total2 - a measure of Bitcoin’s dominance relative to altcoins. The setup suggests Bitcoin may top out soon, and altcoins are likely to gain relative strength. Bearish divergence is forming, and reversal zones are near. For traders and algo users alike, now is a good time to start accumulating select altcoins in anticipation of this shift.
As always, preparation is everything. Nikkhil emphasizes patience, structure, and waiting for confirmation across multiple time frames. This week could offer critical entries across FX and crypto, but only if you stay disciplined.
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