Welcome to this week’s forex forecast, 28th July 2025.
Nikkhil has laid out the key setups and central bank catalysts - Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan announcements, along with U.S. non-farm payrolls, that could swing markets sharply.
Expect rapid transitions between risk-on and risk-off environments.
Let’s break it all down with clarity so you can plan ahead confidently.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
The dollar index recently retested a magnet resistance zone between the 78.6% and 85.4% Fibonacci levels but ran into exhaustion. Buyers have stepped in near that strong fib confluence support, confirmed by bullish divergences on the 4-hour and daily charts. Though momentum remains modest - MACD hasn’t crossed zero yet - the structure supports a continuation higher. The first upside target lies between 100.84 - 101.20, with a stretch toward 101.77 - 102.80 if that breaks. For now, dips toward the trend‑line support or magnet region could be treated as buying opportunities.
CHF/JPY:
This pair has established a new bullish cycle, rallying from lower lows with confirming MACD cycles and a magnet resistance cluster around 192.20 - 192.91. Across weekly and daily frames, bullish momentum remains intact, supported by higher highs on price and MACD alignment. A pullback has recently formed a constructive correction, but any retracement toward trend‑line or fib zones is being treated by Nikkhil as another buying chance. The immediate target is 186.34, with upside potential extending to 186.83 - 186.73 - 188, 190, then eventually 192.
EUR/USD:
A strong bullish structure is unfolding. Monthly and daily trends remain intact with fib confluences creating support around 1.1216 - 1.1295, and resistance near 1.2088 - 1.2110, then higher toward 1.2578. The rising trend line has not yet been breached, keeping the bullish bias intact. On lower frames, minor bearish divergence offers potential for short‑term pullback, but only on intraday charts should one consider fade setups. Otherwise, the preferred scenario remains continuation toward 1.1814 - 1.1861, as long as support near 1.1563 - 1.1600 holds.
GBP/NZD:
GBP/NZD has decisively shifted bearish. Monthly chart review shows a convergence magnet at recent highs - buyers appear exhausted, with bearish divergence on weekly charts and a confirmed trend‑line break. Daily and 4‑hour chart cycles confirm a new downward phase, with immediate downside targets at 2.2203 and 2.1869, reinforced by a key magnet zone near 2.1328. A pullback higher from the current level could offer the low-risk sell entry.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold peaked at 3,439, forming a clear triple top and failing to break above resistance despite multiple attempts. Weekly divergence, melting MACD momentum, and a breached rising trend line all confirm short-term bearish control. From both line- and candle-chart analysis, strong resistance lies between 3,435–3,450, with downside targets at 3,275, 3,216, and ultimately 3,197–3,120, assuming prices stay below 3,433. Even if we see a bounce early in the week, Nikkhil is watching it as another selling opportunity - consistent with a bearish gold plan.
If gold moves back toward 3,433, your trade plan hinges on Nikkhil’s chart levels.
As Nikkhil always emphasizes, preparedness and execution without emotion are your edge.
The key levels are live, setups are maturing, and volatility is brewing.
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Stay sharp, trade with clarity, and We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize