A Week That Punished Everyone. Now CPI Decides the Direction.
Some weeks reward conviction. This was not one of them.
Gold began the week at 4,202 — the ceiling of the rally born from the twice-defended floor at 3,942 — and spent the following sessions grinding steadily lower, all the way to 4,021. Just as that decline started to look like a trend worth joining, price reversed hard into Friday's close and finished at 4,119. Anyone who bought the Monday high spent the week underwater. Anyone who sold the Friday low spent the last few hours of it being squeezed. Both camps were wrong, in opposite directions, inside five sessions.
That leaves one question worth answering: is 4,119 a base for the next advance toward 4,330, or the final exhale before a slide to 3,800?
The answer isn't visible on the gold chart alone. It's written across the dollar, crude and silver — and Tuesday's US inflation print is what forces the decision.
DXY - Dollar Index
The dollar's daily trend is still constructive. Price sits above its breakout zone, climbing inside a rising channel, and what's unfolding now is a pause rather than a turn.
Zoom into the four-hour and the picture sharpens: the recent advance ran directly into overhead resistance, stalled, and has since rotated into a corrective decline inside a falling channel. For that decline to end, buyers must reclaim roughly 101.20.
Until they do, Nikkhil's expectation is that the dollar drifts a little further — back toward the base of that rising channel, filling the unclosed gap left behind on the way up — before a bullish turn takes hold. Slow, gradual, and worth watching, because a softer dollar into Tuesday's data buys gold room to breathe.
CRUDEOIL
Crude's larger move is higher. What's happened since is a corrective pullback inside that advance, and price has already retraced into the 78.6–85.4% support region and bounced from 67.36.
The four-hour tells the story: the bullish divergence Nikkhil flagged in a previous video resolved into a breakout, price cleared its first resistance, and the market is now easing back — currently hovering near the halfway mark of that upward leg. He's not buying into strength. The plan is to wait for the pullback to complete and accumulate in the 68.58–69.08 band.
From there, the ladder is straightforward: 73.69 first, 76.53 second, with 84.00–84.50 standing as the destination where he'd expect sellers to reappear. Short term, the hourly structure is still soft and boxed inside a falling channel — so crude either comes down to that buy zone, or proves itself early by breaking out above 72.79.
XAGUSD (SILVER)
Silver is the most nuanced chart of the four, because the time frames disagree.
The weekly and daily remain bearish — lower highs, lower lows, no confirmation from buyers yet. But the daily's most recent low arrived with bullish divergence on the histogram, and that's a tell: the sellers are running out of fuel, even if they haven't lost control.
The shorter time frames have already begun to turn. Price has climbed back above its falling channel, which tells you the downward pressure has drained away, and Friday's close pushed decisively through channel resistance. The support that matters is 57.26–57.28 — while silver holds above it, Nikkhil sees no case for another leg down.
The first obstacle overhead is 61.23–61.81, which he expects buyers to clear. Beyond that, 64.99 (call it 65) is where the confluence sits and the nearest realistic target. Whether silver goes further depends entirely on how it behaves there: reclaim the structural level at 66.35, or simply hold above 65, and the conversation shifts to 77.55. Fail at 65, and the more likely path is a rejection and a rotation back down.
The real lesson of a week like this
When longs get caught at 4,202 and shorts get squeezed at 4,021, the damage usually isn't done by the market. It's done by what comes next — the trade taken to win the money back, the stop that gets nudged, the “one more entry” that turns a bad day into a bad month.
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XAUUSD (GOLD)
Step back and gold's weekly structure is still a series of lower highs and lower lows. That hasn't changed, and it's why this remains a bounce to be traded rather than a trend to be assumed.
What has changed is the quality of the selling. On the daily, gold reached its support confluence and printed a lower low accompanied by bullish divergence — the same signature that appeared on silver, and the same conclusion: the downside is losing momentum.
The four-hour is where the case builds. The twice-tested floor at 3,942 produced a double bottom, buyers broke structure, and the rally that followed was impulsive rather than laboured. The retracement that came after was equally well-behaved — it stopped precisely at the 61.8% level and retested 4,041 before Friday's close produced a strong reversal candle. That's a constructive sequence, and it argues for continuation higher.
Above current price, the resistance stacks up in a clear sequence: 4,180, then 4,212, then 4,280, then 4,346, with the significant overhead confluence at 4,413–4,441. On the lower time frames the near-term steps are 4,144, then 4,181–4,189, then 4,261–4,280.
The honest expectation: Nikkhil is not forecasting 4,420 this week. That upper zone is the eventual destination, not the immediate one — and whether gold even begins that journey rests on Tuesday's CPI. A supportive print is what would unlock the move toward the 4,400 handle. A hot one changes the arithmetic entirely.
Coming up: the midweek live session returns Wednesday, reviewing how these levels held through CPI and which scenario — 4,330 or 3,800 — is winning.
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The floor at 3,942 did its job. Gold closed the week at 4,119, the levels are mapped, and Tuesday's inflation data holds the trigger. The discipline now is restraint — wait for price to arrive at your level rather than reaching for it.
— The Moneytize Team