Welcome to this week's Forex Forecast which comes at a pivotal moment. Both gold and silver have just completed major corrective moves, while Dollar Index teeters near make-or-break levels. With NFP delayed to next week and major data like US CPI and UK GDP incoming, volatility is poised to surge once again.
Despite being under the weather, Nikkhil’s broken down the four key charts you need to prepare with clarity: Dollar Index, Bitcoin, Silver, and Gold. Let’s dive into what’s setting up.
DXY (Dollar Index)
After completing a textbook retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the monthly chart, the Dollar Index is showing signs of short-term relief. But don’t mistake this for a trend reversal, Nikkhil’s fib extension targets are still firmly set at 95.84, followed by 93.80 and 92.20.
On the daily and 4H frames, DXY continues to show bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows, and no bullish divergence to support any major bounce. While a temporary corrective pullback is anticipated, the overall direction remains down. Short-term bounce or deeper breakdown?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin’s long-term monthly structure remains bullish, and Nikkhil still sees it heading to 164K, but not before a deeper correction. After printing bearish divergence on the weekly, BTC is pulling back hard. Current support zones lie between 55,000 and 50,000, with the worst-case flush scenario extending to 40K.
Until that corrective leg completes, any upside is considered corrective, not a reversal. The key level to watch near-term is 56,882, a Fibonacci extension zone. Long-term bulls should stay patient for confirmation before reloading.
Silver (XAGUSD)
Silver’s monthly chart remains intact, bullish and building, despite the sharp pullback. After an aggressive move that peaked around the 91 - 92 zone, the metal is cooling off with signs of bullish divergence starting to appear on lower timeframes.
Still, Nikkhil sees one more push lower likely, toward the 62.8 to 63.5 magnet zone. This will be the area to watch for long-term entries. Until then, short-term bounces toward 82, 87, or even 89 are likely to face resistance and provide shorting opportunities.
This zone could mark the bottom of the silver reset.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold has bounced sharply from the 4,400s as forecasted last week, and Nikkhil is now targeting a move to 5,121, followed by 5,267 and 5,337. The structure remains bullish, but he warns: a retest of 4,675 or 4,497 is still likely before the next major leg higher unfolds.
Until price closes below 4,770, the bullish bias remains in play for this week. The 5,337 level is key, a strong break above could trigger the next leg in gold’s long-term rally.
The setups are developing fast, and with CPI and GDP data looming, it’s time to prepare like a pro.
Avoid emotional trading and stick to structure, the path is already on the chart.
Click here to watch the full Moneytize Forecast.
We’ll talk soon
Team Moneytize