Welcome to this week’s Moneytize Forecast. Tensions between the US and Iran are escalating rapidly. With President Trump pushing for a renewed nuclear and missile agreement and issuing a 10-15 day window, markets are bracing for potential fallout. Iran has responded with military drills, and US forces have increased their presence in the region. This isn’t just political noise, it’s a potential volatility trigger for the dollar, gold, and crude oil.
We’re also heading into the final week of the month, with Trump’s speech, key European inflation data, and German numbers on deck, alongside continuous geopolitical headlines. Markets have been quiet, but quiet often precedes expansion. Nikkhil has mapped the technical structure across DXY, CHFJPY, EURUSD, crude oil, and gold so you can approach this week with clarity instead of reaction. Let’s break it down.
DXY (Dollar Index)
On the higher timeframes, the US Dollar Index remains structurally bearish. The three-month and monthly charts continue to print lower lows and lower highs, with MACD alignment confirming that recent upside bounces have been corrective, not trend-changing. The broader falling channel structure remains intact, and as long as price stays below 101, the long-term pressure favors sellers. A decisive break below the 96 region would open the door toward 90.33 as a longer-term magnet.
On the daily chart, buyers are attempting a recovery, but this bounce is still technically corrective. The key near-term barrier sits between 98.53 and 98.75. Only a daily close above 98.75 would shift short-term structure and open a move toward 100 and potentially 101. Without that break, even safe-haven spikes driven by geopolitical tension are likely to be short-lived.
CHFJPY
Long-term, CHFJPY remains in a powerful bullish structure, with higher highs aligned across price and MACD on the three-month and monthly charts. However, momentum is beginning to show signs of exhaustion on lower timeframes.
On the weekly and daily charts, bearish divergence has formed, and on the 4-hour timeframe the bearish structure is already confirmed. Sellers have broken structure, and the pair is now targeting 197.88 as the first downside magnet. A continuation could bring 195.98 into play. That said, unless price breaks below 196.31 on the daily, this likely remains a corrective move within a larger bullish trend.
EURUSD
EURUSD continues to hold a structurally bullish bias on higher timeframes. The three-month chart shows strong bullish divergence from prior lows, and the long-term projection remains pointed significantly higher. In the near term, however, we’re approaching a decision zone.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is still printing higher highs and higher lows, and momentum remains supportive. As long as price holds above 1.1657, dips are considered buying opportunities. Immediate upside targets sit at 1.1869 and 1.1935. However, a rejection near 1.1816 could trigger one more corrective leg down before continuation.
The key this week is whether EURUSD breaks its short-term falling trendline and reclaims momentum or pauses before the next expansion.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is increasingly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, and structurally the higher timeframes are shifting in favor of buyers. The larger retracement held near the 61.8% zone, and weekly bullish divergence confirms underlying strength. The near-term higher timeframe target sits at 73.76, with intermediate resistance at 68.57.
On lower timeframes, a short-term pullback remains possible. Dips toward 63.20-62.89 would be viewed as buying opportunities within the current structure. However, if US-Iran tensions escalate sharply, crude may not offer deep retracements before pushing higher.
Gold (XAUUSD)
All eyes are on gold. On the monthly chart, price perfectly respected the 78.6%-85.4% retracement zone before printing a strong bullish continuation candle. Momentum remains firmly in favor of buyers. The key weekly support now sits at 4,835, and as long as gold holds above 4,858 on the daily, the bullish structure remains intact.
On the daily timeframe, price has already pushed through 5,079 and is approaching resistance between 5,128 and 5,140. A break above this zone opens the path toward 5,342-the next major magnet. If geopolitical tensions intensify, volatility could expand rapidly. The technical and fundamental narratives are aligned.
Invalidation for the bullish setup sits below 4,858. Until that level breaks, Nikkhil remains positioned for continuation higher.
This is the level that could define the month.
We are entering a week where patience and preparation will matter more than prediction.
Volatility may expand quickly, especially with geopolitical catalysts in play.
The traders who thrive are the ones who already know their levels before price gets there.
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Team Moneytize