As we head into a week packed with market-moving events, you need to be on high alert. With the release of FOMC meeting minutes, a policy update from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium, volatility is almost guaranteed.
Nikkhil has dissected the charts across major instruments to map the most probable scenarios and where the real opportunities lie.
Nikkhil has dissected the charts across major instruments to map the most probable scenarios and where the real opportunities lie.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
The Dollar Index has broken its long-term rising trendline, confirming a structural shift on both monthly and weekly timeframes. With divergence between the last two monthly highs and extensions pointing toward 95.80, the medium-term outlook remains bearish. Price currently sits near a key fib resistance at 101.05, with the next downward leg likely to be triggered by dovish commentary from Fed Chair Powell. However, if Powell maintains a hawkish stance, we may first see a retest of the trendline before resumption lower.
EUR/CAD:
EUR/CAD is holding firm above 1.58, bouncing off the 61.8% fib with strong bullish divergence on the 3-month chart. With the falling trendline now breached, momentum has clearly shifted to the buyers. Nikkhil’s long-term extension points to a magnet zone between 1.6750 and 1.700. On lower timeframes, the fifth wave of the bullish cycle appears to be in progress, with near-term targets at 1.6214 and the confluence zone around 1.6750. Dips toward 1.5862 are seen as buying opportunities, aligned with both trend and structure.
GBP/NZD:
Pound Kiwi remains a strong bullish candidate. Holding above the rising trendline on weekly and finding support at 2.25 - 2.2630, the pair is gearing up for a breakout through the fib resistance at 2.2869 - 2.30. If this clears, Nikkhil sees an open runway toward 2.33 and eventually 2.47. With buyers firmly in control across timeframes and no major divergence on momentum indicators, any dip, especially toward 2.23, is being treated as an opportunity.
GBP/USD:
Sterling is coiling tightly with a bullish tilt, supported by divergence on the 3-month and structure alignment across monthly and weekly charts. Price has bounced cleanly from the 1.25 area and is currently testing resistance around 1.3630 - 1.3660. Above 1.3350, the plan is to buy the dip with next bullish targets at 1.3844, 1.3940 and eventually 1.4000. Even on the 4-hour, higher lows continue to print, validating the broader bullish bias.
XAU/USD (Gold):
Gold is consolidating in a high-compression range, forming a bullish coil ahead of key macro events. Higher timeframes (from 3-month to weekly), remain firmly bullish, with strong trend structure and no major divergence. Price recently rejected from the $3,398 - $3,400 resistance zone and is holding above the critical support band of $3,296 - $3,310. A breach below 3,241 would negate the bullish outlook, but until then, Nikkhil is treating pullbacks as buying opportunities. He’s watching closely for a bounce setup around current levels or a deeper dip toward 3,170 - 3,100. Initial targets lie at 3,400, 3,433, and 3,495, with the ultimate magnet at 3,532.
It’s a packed week, and every chart is near a decision zone.
Prepare for potential volatility, be patient, and act professionally.
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Team Moneytize