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Gold Broke Out. The Only Question Left Is Straight Up — or Dip First
Gold closed the week at 4,341, and that close carries more weight than it might appear. Technically, this is a clean bullish break — the range resolved to the upside, and the market is now leaning higher. The open question isn't direction anymore; it's path. Does gold run straight up from here, or pull back first and then continue?
That question runs headlong into the calendar. CPI lands Wednesday, with PPI right behind on 13 August — back-to-back, high-impact prints. After June's inflation cooldown, this data could decide whether the breakout holds outright or gets a test before the next leg up. Today's map covers the dollar and silver, then the main event: gold's pullback-versus-continuation debate and the exact levels to watch into CPI.
DXY - Dollar Index
The dollar's bigger picture is still constructive, but the near-term pressure is clearly down. On the four-hour and hourly, price is grinding out lower highs and lower lows with no reversal signal yet, capped by resistance at 100.07–100.15 (and 100.70 above).
Nikkhil's roadmap is a step lower first: a move into 99.22–99.29, a bounce, and then a deeper push toward 98.75, which is where he'd expect the dollar to finally turn. The line in the sand for the bull case is 98.65 — a close below it would invalidate the dollar's structure and point to longer-term trouble. For gold, the read is simple: a softening dollar into CPI is a tailwind.
XAGUSD (SILVER)
Silver is in a corrective bounce, not a confirmed reversal — an important distinction Nikkhil is careful to draw. The recent low came with divergence on the histogram only (and a lower low still on the MACD lines), which is why he's treating this as a bounce against the prior downtrend rather than the start of a new bull run. Even so, the bias stays constructive as long as price holds above 57.47; a close below that is the invalidation, and he rates the odds of it low.
The upside ladder is clear: the first hurdle is the 67–68 zone (with near-term levels at 64.79–64.80 and support at 60.88), then 71–72, with an ultimate objective up at 81–82. His plan is to accumulate on weakness — and with CPI and PPI on the calendar, he expects a dip to buy into rather than a straight-line advance.
XAUUSD (GOLD)
Start with the structure. On the daily, gold's last leg down completed precisely at the 200% extension and has since broken higher — so this is a genuine breakout, with the correction reading as a pause rather than a reversal. Overhead, resistance stacks at 4,382, then 4,532, with 4,775 as the last major ceiling; the weekly picture strengthens further on a close above 4,892.
Here's Nikkhil's base case, and it's the pullback path. He wouldn't be surprised to see Monday's open run straight into resistance around 4,382 — possibly a false breakout marked by bearish divergence — followed by a corrective move lower. The four-hour and hourly both show buyer exhaustion building, which is why he isn't expecting a clean continuation from here. The first downside target on that dip is 4,220, and if that gives way, 4,138 — with a deeper pocket at 4,120 — before the trend resumes.
Crucially, he frames those dips as opportunities, not threats. For anyone accumulating toward the larger objective of 4,750–4,770 — a move he's clear won't happen overnight — a drop into 4,220 or 4,138–4,120 is where he adds. The discipline is patience: wait for the false breakout and the pullback rather than chasing the breakout candle, and let CPI set the tone.
What to Watch This Week
Coming up: the midweek review is on. Nikkhil returns Wednesday once CPI is out — that's when the thesis either confirms or gets adjusted.
The setup into CPI/PPI week is clean either way. A soft print weakens the dollar and hands gold a tailwind; a hot one lifts the dollar and plays out the pullback scenario first. The breakout itself isn't in doubt — the debate is only whether gold goes straight up or dips before it does. The plan writes itself: respect 4,382 on the first push, treat 4,220 and 4,138–4,120 as places to accumulate, and let Wednesday's data pick the path.
The full breakdown is live on the Moneytize YouTube channel, and the Telegram link in the description gets you into the group for real-time updates through the week.
— The Moneytize Team