This week is shaping up to be anything but quiet. After a relatively slow stretch in the markets, we’re stepping into a high-volatility environment driven by multiple central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada. On top of that, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are adding another layer of uncertainty. Nikkhil has mapped out the key levels and scenarios across major instruments so you can approach the week with clarity and control. Let’s break it down.
DXY (Dollar Index)
The dollar continues to respect its broader bearish structure, trading within a long-term descending channel. Price recently rejected the key resistance at 100.50 and has resumed forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the downside bias. On lower timeframes, sellers have regained control after a failed attempt by buyers to push above recent highs, and we’re now seeing fresh bearish extensions forming. That said, Nikkhil is watching the 98.80 level closely. A temporary spike toward 99.34 is possible, especially around the Fed announcement. But unless price can break and hold above that zone, any rally is likely to fade. A rejection there could open the path back toward 97.93 and below.
NASDAQ (US100)
NASDAQ remains firmly in bullish territory, with a clean structure of higher highs and higher lows across multiple timeframes. Momentum has slowed slightly, but there are no signs of reversal or bearish divergence, which keeps the upside bias intact. Nikkhil is focused on the support zone around 26,500 - 26,300. Any pullback into this region, especially around high-impact news events, could present buying opportunities. On the upside, the next targets sit at 27,771, followed by 28,354 and potentially into the 28,700 - 28,900 range.
Crude Oil
Crude has shifted gears after failing to hold above the 119.72 resistance, a move driven by geopolitical premium that quickly faded. The rejection at highs, combined with bearish divergence, has handed control back to sellers. Now, the focus is on rallies into resistance zones. Nikkhil is watching 104 and the higher band between 110 - 112 as key areas where selling pressure could re-enter. Unless we see a sustained breakout above 112, the expectation is for price to rotate back toward 90 - 87. This is a market heavily influenced by fundamentals right now.
Silver (XAGUSD)
Silver is showing early signs of recovery after a sharp decline. While sellers initially dominated, momentum has clearly started to fade, and bullish divergence is beginning to build. However, buyers haven’t fully confirmed control yet. The key level here is 81.77. A clean break and daily close above this zone could unlock a move toward 88 - 91. On the downside, support sits between 71 - 72, with a deeper safety zone at 65 - 69. As long as price holds above these levels, Nikkhil remains cautiously bullish, especially with a weakening dollar in the background.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold is sitting at a critical inflection point. After rejecting the 4,880 resistance zone, price has entered a corrective phase, but the selling momentum is clearly weakening. With the dollar under pressure, the broader expectation leans bullish, but confirmation is still required. The key level to watch is 4,756. A break and hold above this zone could trigger a move toward 4,913 and potentially retest the highs near 5,000. On the downside, support sits at 4,600, followed by the critical 4,550 level. As long as gold holds above 4,550, Nikkhil is treating dips as buying opportunities. However, with the Fed announcement approaching, volatility could create false breakouts.
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